The Islamist threat has returned to the forefront of political debate in Europe following the attacks in Berlin and Paris.
In Berlin, 21-year-old German national of Lebanese origin Abdoul Ballout drove a van into the Gay Pride parade near Tiergarten Park, killing one person—a 65-year-old Polish woman—and injuring 29 others. In Paris, near Porte de Clichy, a man stabbed three people before being restrained, reportedly shouting, “Allah ordered me to kill women.” The attacker, who appeared to be suffering from severe mental instability, was hospitalized, leading investigators to largely rule out a terrorist motive.
In the Berlin case, the attacker was killed during a police operation in Spandau after threatening officers with a knife. Ballout was already well known to the authorities. In 2025, he had attempted to join ISIS, first in Mauritania and later in Syria. His family, however, stated that they are Shi’a Muslims and therefore would never have supported the Islamic State. Upon returning to Berlin, Ballout was arrested and convicted of preparing a terrorist act. However, under Germany’s juvenile justice system—which, in practice, can be applied to offenders up to the age of 21—he received a prison sentence of only 22 months. He was subsequently released on probation with the obligation to participate in a deradicalization program, which clearly failed.
The attack has reignited a debate in Germany over the effectiveness of deradicalization programs and raised serious questions about how such a young individual, already under close scrutiny by security services, was nevertheless able to carry out a deadly terrorist attack. This is particularly striking in light of reports from his neighbors, who claimed he had openly expressed his intention to target the Berlin Gay Pride parade.
The attack was also condemned by Germany’s two main Muslim organizations, the Central Council of Muslims in Germany and Milli Görüs, the association representing Turkish Muslims.
Italy’s 2026 Annual Intelligence Report to Parliament, covering developments during 2025, had already anticipated the possibility of an increase in terrorist threats across Europe as a consequence of the growing instability in the Middle East—an instability that, at least for the time being, shows no sign of easing.
Over the coming months, European governments are likely to face a complex, multi-layered security environment. Alongside the broader geopolitical instability in the Middle East, with its economic and logistical consequences, they will also have to manage rising tensions within Muslim communities and an increasing number of “borderline” individuals requiring close monitoring and potentially prone to violent action.
Italy, which for years appeared to be a relative safe haven, can no longer consider itself immune, particularly in light of the events in Modena. Although that incident was not officially classified as terrorism, it closely resembled the modus operandi seen in Berlin and in several previous terrorist attacks involving vehicles deliberately driven into unsuspecting pedestrians.
