The winter of 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most difficult moments for Ukraine since the beginning of the war. In November, the armed forces of the Russian Federation achieved one of the most significant advances into Ukrainian territory since Kyiv’s 2023 counteroffensive, consolidating key positions and increasing pressure along the front. In particular, Russia secured important gains around Pokrovsk, a critical node in Ukraine’s defensive line in the Donbas.

Moreover, despite its own economic and military difficulties, Moscow appears better positioned than Kyiv to sustain the conflict. Ukraine has for months been suffering from a shortage of manpower at the front, coupled with limited availability of equipment and ammunition, and overwhelming operational strain caused by the length of the front line and constant Russian pressure. Ukraine’s ability to continue the war essentially depends on Western support, both military and economic.

However, even this support may not be enough. In the coming months, the Russian Federation is expected to continue targeting Ukraine’s already heavily degraded energy infrastructure and to keep advancing along the front, further weakening Kyiv’s position at the negotiating table. The U.S. administration led by Donald Trump has for months been seeking a negotiated resolution to the conflict. In recent weeks, the two sides have moved closer, though not yet enough to reach an agreement.