The Middle East is currently experiencing one of the most dramatic and dangerous phases in its recent history. Since late February 2026, Iran has entered into open war with a coalition led by the United States and Israel—a conflict that has already profoundly altered regional balances and risks enormous global repercussions, particularly on the energy front.The joint U.S.-Israeli operation began on February 28, when American and Israeli air forces launched a massive, large-scale bombing campaign against Iran.
The declared objective was to decapitate the regime’s leadership, destroy its missile and drone capabilities, strike nuclear and missile infrastructure, and irreversibly weaken Iran’s nuclear program. The most devastating blow in the very first hours of the conflict was undoubtedly the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In addition, the coalition destroyed numerous missile sites (such as the Esfahan Missile Complex), drone bases, military airports, and IRGC and Artesh air bases. These were accompanied by attacks on energy and production infrastructure; above all, the main strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear program.
U.S. President Donald Trump, after describing the operation as an extraordinary success, demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender and urged the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the ayatollahs’ regime. However, Iran’s response was negative; on the contrary, Tehran launched attacks throughout the region, despite the drastic reduction in its missile and drone capabilities (thanks to the combined bombings and their own use). Iranian missiles and drones struck Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Above all, the main concern is linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil passes. This has led to a considerable increase in oil prices, with major repercussions in the West.
In addition, the attacks on neighboring countries, despite international condemnation, are worrying because they generate a strong sense of insecurity with significant economic and public image repercussions.Following the killing of Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei—his son and considered even more radical than his father—was appointed as the new Supreme Leader. This choice has not been particularly welcomed in Washington and Jerusalem, which have promised to strike any successor imposed by the regime. Meanwhile, Iran finds itself in an extremely difficult economic condition, with runaway inflation and shortages of food, gasoline, electricity, and water.
It remains to be seen how much longer the conflict can last and whether the United States and Israel will achieve the desired result. Despite the destruction of Iran’s armed forces, the regime remains in place, and as long as it survives, Iran is unlikely to change its foreign policy approach, because maintaining the current one is now tied to the regime’s very survival. Although the grim predictions of some analysts—such as the risk for the United States of running out of interceptor missiles—do not seem to be materializing, thanks to a shrewd and precise campaign of targeted bombings, it is unthinkable to continue an endless conflict that would have enormous repercussions on local and Western economies. Therefore, the adequate time window for achieving the set objectives is narrowing day by day. Whoever can endure longer will likely secure strategic victory.
